Do I care? Should I care? Maybe I'm just grumpy. Barring a not-altogether-impossible-last-minute Wrestler shockeroo, I don't really care enough about the Best Picture frontrunners (my admiration for Milk and The Dark Knight aside). But I know I'll look back in a couple of months and kick myself for not having at least one set of predictions for the records. They're nice time capsules, and I always enjoy looking back on what was speculated versus what the Academy was actually feeling.
BEST PICTURE (4/5)
1. Slumdog Millionaire +
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. Slumdog Millionaire
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button +
5. Slumdog Millionaire
6. The Dark Knight -
7. Frost/Nixon +
8. Milk +
---
9. Wall-E
10. The Wrestler
Missed: The Reader
Okay, cheekiness aside, I think those "familiar five" films recycled throughout awards season are defo. our nominees. At the time votes were due, these were the only titles on everyone's minds (see the boring guilds' choices). I suppose Wall-E's entirely possible too, and I'd be excited to see such a development (I'm not crazy about the Stanton picture, but I can understand the love). Either way, if it does make the shortlist, I'm guessing that Milk surrenders its spot to the animated feature, not Frost/Nixon.
BEST DIRECTOR (3/5)
1. Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire +
2. David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button +
3. Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight -
4. Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon +
5. Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler -
---
6. Gus Van Sant, Milk +
7. Jonathan Demme, Rachel Getting Married
Missed: Stephen Daldry, The Reader (now 3/3 in this category. Damn.)
Again, I think Frost/Nixon is more of a player in this race than people imagine, and Van Sant is the DGA-nominated director who's in most danger of getting lost in the shuffle, not Howard. Wish it was the other way around, but I'd be thrilled to see Aronofsky get in either way.
BEST ACTRESS (3/5)
1. Meryl Streep, Doubt +
2. Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married +
3. Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky -
4. Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road -
5. Angelina Jolie, Changeling +
---
6. Kate Winslet, The Reader +
7. Melissa Leo, Frozen River +
If I do badly in the female acting categories, I blame it on Kate Winslet and her loony category fraud this year. Just like how Leonardo DiCaprio ('07) and Scarlett Johansson ('04) screwed me over in their double-bill years. Anyways, standard five here too - I can't imagine them leaving out Sally Hawkins after LAFCA and NYFCC.
BEST ACTOR (5/5)
1. Sean Penn, Milk +
2. Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler +
3. Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon +
4. Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button +
5. Richard Jenkins, The Visitor +
---
6. Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
7. Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
I just don't wanna see Gran Torino, kay?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (4/5)
1. Viola Davis, Doubt +
2. Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona +
3. Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler +
4. Kate Winslet, The Reader -
5. Amy Adams, Doubt +
---
6. Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button +
7. Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
Go, go, go DeWitt!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (4/5)
1. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight +
2. Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire -
3. Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder +
4. Josh Brolin, Milk +
5. Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road +
---
6. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt +
7. James Franco, Milk
I may be (v. v.) stupid to exclude Hoffman, but I think Shannon's not entirely out of the race, and could surprise in manner of Djimon Hounsou in the year of In America.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (3/5)
1. Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona -
2. Dustin Lance Black, Milk +
3. Andrew Stanton, Wall-E +
4. Robert D. Siegel, The Wrestler -
5. Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky +
---
6. Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
7. Martin McDonaugh, In Bruges +
Missed: Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
They're probably off of the Coen Brothers for a while, WGA nod be damned.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (4/5)
1. Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire +
2. Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon +
3. Eric Roth, Robin Swicord, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button +
4. Jonathan Nolan, David S. Goyer, The Dark Knight -
5. David Hare, The Reader +
---
6. John Patrick Shanley, Doubt +
7. Justin Haythe, Revolutionary Road -
...
I will leave the tech races to people who are actually good at that stuff. Good luck to you all, and I'll catch up with you after the announcement tomorrow.
Happy Nomination Day!
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