Best Film (2007): No Country for Old Men
Initially, I had an instinct to go for Sweeney Todd, but then I remembered that the NBR has never really embraced a Tim Burton film in full-force, even ignoring his critical hits like Ed Wood and Big Fish. Yes, Corpse Bride won the Animated Film prize back in '05, but I don't think it makes much of a difference in this race. The Coen Brothers film is fitting in that it makes for a respectable, critically approved choice (in the same vein as Goodnight and Good Luck.) Unless they decide to go really bizarro, like with Quills in '00, but they haven't done something that crazy in a long time.
The Top Ten (in alphabetical order):
American Gangster, Atonement, Charlie Wilson's War, Hairspray, Into the Wild, Juno, The Kite Runner, Knocked Up, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men.
Best Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah and No Country for Old Men [alt. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood]
- Depp is also a possibility here; they usually go for the obvious choices in the lead categories, saving the truly "out there" citations for the supporting races.
Best Actress: Laura Linney, The Savages [alt. Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart]
- The NBR doesn't really reward foreign films in the main races, relegating kudos to specialized categories, so I'm ruling Cotillard out entirely.
Best Supporting Actor: Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild [alt. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men]
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There [alt. Jennifer Garner, Juno]
Best Direction: Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead [alt. Sean Penn, Into the Wild]
Best Writing - Original: Diablo Cody, Juno [alt. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton]
Best Writing - Adapted: Christopher Hampton, Atonement [alt. Eileen Chang, James Schamus, Lust, Caution]
- Re: the alternate... yes, they don't like foreign fare in these categories, but it *is* an Ang Lee film, and he's been twice rewarded in the directing category.
Breakthrough (Male): I... don't care.
Breakthrough (Female): Ugh. In a better world, Tei Wang for Lust, Caution.
Ensemble: I'm Not There or Hairspray
Foreign Language Film: 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days
Animated Film: Persepolis
Documentary: Sicko (they like Moore)
Debut Director: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton