Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Oscar Predix: Mid-November 2006 [Part Two]

And forging onwards... Click here to see the first part of this post, specifically the predix for Picture, Director, Actress and Actor.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1. Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls (1) [Going Lead?]
2. Adriana Barraza, Babel (-)
3. Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine (-) [Going Lead?]
4. Anika Noni Rose, Dreamgirls (4)
5. Maggie Gyllenhaal, World Trade Center or Stranger than Fiction (10)
---
6. Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal (-, moved from Lead [rank: 6])
7. Rinko Kikuchi, Babel (-)
8. Sylvia Syms, The Queen (-)
9. Emma Thompson , Stranger than Fiction (-)
10. Emily Blunt, The Devil Wears Prada (-)

For my money, the most exciting category this year. Comments coming soon.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1. Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls (1)
2. Jack Nicholson, The Departed (6)
3. Brad Pitt, Babel (-, moved from Lead [rank: 3])
4. Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine (-)
5. Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children (5)
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6. Michael Sheen, The Queen (9)
7. Adam Beach, Flags of Our Fathers (-)
8. Steve Carrell, Little Miss Sunshine (-)
9. Ben Affleck, Hollywoodland (2)
10. Robert Downey Jr., Fur (4)

Comments coming soon.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Peter Morgan, The Queen (9)
2. Guillermo Arriaga, Babel (2)
3. Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine (10)
4.
Emilio Estevez, Bobby (1)
5. Pedro Almodovar, Volver (7)
---
6. Paul Greengrass, United 93 (6)
7. Andrea Berloff, World Trade Center (-)
8. Eric Roth, The Good Shepherd (3)
9. Anthony Minghella, Breaking and Entering (4)
10. Christopher Guest, For Your Consideration (5)
10. Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines, Borat (-)

Comments coming soon.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Bill Condon, Dreamgirls (2)
2. Patrick Marber, Notes on a Scandal (5)
3. William Monahan, The Departed (-)
4. Paul Haggis, Flags of Our Fathers (1)
5. Todd Field, Little Children (4)
---
6. Steve Conrad, The Pursuit of Happyness (-) [Original?]
7. Iris Yamashita, Letters from Iwo Jima (-)
8. Jeremy Brock, The Last King of Scotland (3)
9. Ron Nyswaner, The Painted Veil (-)

10. Alan Bennett, The History Boys (8)

Comments coming soon.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tell me why do you give to Bobby a best picture nom, best original screeplay nom AND NOT NOT GIVE TO SHARON STONE THE NOM for best supporting actress. She is so far the only oscar hope for this movie.

Ali said...

She is the one with the strongest chances, but the heat is just not there. There are many other actors being pushed in that category that have much more potential than her. Should Hudson and Breslin go lead, she'll move up a few notches.

Besides, the supporting categories are really up in the air until the precursors have their say. If you're a fan of the performance, I wouldn't lose hope completely yet. But I have to say that I am already regretting that Best Picture mention; the reviews are even more cutting than I originally thought.

jesse said...

Is Dreamgirls really supposed to be that good?

Because I can't even begin to describe my indifference...

Ali said...

Yes.

Well, are you at all a musical fan? What are your feelings on Moulin Rouge! and Chicago.

jesse said...

I adore Moulin Rouge!--one of those films that define high school for me, and that I've been meaning to revisit for a while now. On the other hand, I thought Chicago was pretty bad. Actually, I thought it was really bad.

But overall I consider myself a musical fan--I tend to like them more than not. And after watching the trailer (finally) for Dreamgirls, maybe I'm not quite as indifferent as I thought. Mabye I'll catch it in the theaters.

Nick M. said...

It's official, I only care about these performances at this point:

Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson for Best Actor
Michael Sheen in The Queen for Best Supporting Actor
Vera Farmiga in The Departed for Best Supprting Actress

In response to your last question to me, "More depressing than last year?" -- I'd say yes, because I am overcome with unbearable apathy when reading all of these well-written, thoughtful predictions. The excitement is just...not there.

Poo.

Nick M. said...

Oh, and Ms. Cruz. I'd love to see her nominated for Volver.

Ali said...

Jesse - I enjoy Chicago, but I definitely feel it would have been a great movie had Condon directed it as well. His screenplay was awesome. And looking to Memoirs of a Geisha, it is clear that Rob Marshall cannot direct to save his life.

Nick - I hear you. Hopefully this will be a season of surprises (*snicker*). Actually, I liked that you talked about your hopefuls, because I had no idea you liked Sheen and Farmiga that much in their respective films (especially the latter, since you are cool on the Scorsese picture overall.)

If you liked her in The Departed, you will love her cameo in Breaking and Entering. The transformation is incredible - I didn't even recognize her until after the fact.