Why not?

I originally wasn't planning on posting any predictions, but I have nothing to do until the Red Carpet Specials start popping up in a couple of hours. Anyways, it's fun to look back on these posts years later and reflect on the excitement, impatience and vote-flopping indecision that precedes each telecast. Much luck to you on your picks: may all of your favourites win. Unless they aren't the same as mine. Then you're on your own.

+PICTURE: No Country for Old Men (This would be my pick, although I'd be pleased by a Michael Clayton upset.)

+DIRECTOR: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men (Again, my pick(s). A win for Julian Schnabel isn't out of the question. Could totally happen, although I'm really hoping it won't.)

+ACTRESS: Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose (The BAFTA win probably came at just the right time, just over a week before AMPAS ballots were due. Don't we need a biopic performance winning somewhere in the acting races? I'm also guessing Christie's SAG acceptance speech didn't exactly charm voters. I'm a Christie supporter through-and-through, although I think Marion would be a perfectly respectable Oscar choice.)

+ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood (Lock. My vote: I'm still torn between Tommy Lee Jones and Viggo.)

-SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ruby Dee, American Gangster (I have no idea whose name to pencil in here, so I'm staying with my original prediction and am guessing that sentiment influences the vote. This will probably be the last chance the Academy has to honor Dee, and the others in this category will have many more chances in the future. I'll be glued to my t.v. when this category is handed out. My vote: Swinton, of course.) [The Oscar went to TILDA! Never have I been so thrilled to be wrong.]

+SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men (Lock #2, and my favorite in this category.)

-ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood (The Coens have already won a writing prize for Fargo, and with their win almost a done deal in the directing category, voters may want some fresh blood in this race. This is Anderson's third nomination for writing, and the third time may just be the trick (it worked for Charlie Kaufman, didn't it?) Plus, can the Coen Brothers really win all four categories they are nominated in? My vote: Sarah Polley, although I'd be just as happy with a No Country win here.) [The Oscar went to the Coen Bros.]

+ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: El Diablo, Juno. (Can we not talk about it, please? I'd be most happy with a win for Tony Gilroy here.)

-ANIMATED FILM: Persepolis (Risky, yes, but who saw the win for Spirited Away coming? Plus, people may feel enough is enough with Pixar forever dominating this category.) [The Oscar went to Brad Bird for Ratatouille.]

+CINEMATOGRAPHY: Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood (I'm thinking Deakins splits his support, while Kaminski's two wins work against him. Plus, as precedent tells us, a nomination in Art Direction often helps here.)

- ART DIRECTION: Jack Fisk and co., There Will Be Blood (Spoiler: Dante Feretti and co., Sweeney Todd) [The Oscar went to Sweeney Todd.]

+COSTUME DESIGN: Alexandra Byrne, Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Bad reviews don't really matter in this category; see Marie Antoinette and Memoirs of a Geisha.)

+EDITING: Christopher Rouse, The Bourne Ultimatum (Showy, frantic cuts often impress voters here: Black Hawk Down, The Matrix, etc.)

+MAKE-UP: La Vie En Rose (A sure thing, and the team deserves the win.)

+ORIGINAL SCORE: Dario Marianelli, Atonement (It's memorable and lasting, which stands out amongst the pack here; crossing my fingers for James Newton Howard.)

+ORIGINAL SONG: Glen Hansard and Markéta Irglová for "Falling Slowly", Once

-SOUND MIXING: Transformers (The press for Oscar bridesmaid Kevin O'Connell has likely paid off.) [The Oscar went to The Bourne Ultimatum.]

- SOUND EFFECTS EDITING: No Country for Old Men (The lack of a score makes the work here really stand out.) [The Oscar went to The Bourne Ultimatum.)

-VISUAL EFFECTS: Transformers (Better this than The Golden Compass. Yucky.) [The Oscar went to the fakey polar bears. Figures.]


MY TALLY
No Country for Old Men - 4
There Will Be Blood - 4
La Vie En Rose - 2
Transformers - 2
American Gangster - 1
Atonement - 1
The Bourne Ultimatum - 1
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - 1
Juno - 1
Once - 1
Persepolis - 1

OSCAR's TALLY
No Country for Old Men - 4
The Bourne Ultimatum - 3
There Will Be Blood - 2
La Vie En Rose - 2
Atonement - 1
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - 1
The Golden Compass - 1
Juno - 1
Michael Clayton - 1
Once - 1
Ratatouille - 1
Sweeney Todd - 1

12 out of 19 = 63%

I know so little about the nominees in the Documentary and Foreign Language Film races this year, so I'll abstain from predicting. I look forward to catching up with them on video though.

Happy Oscars, all!