Because I'm so predictable. Ballsiest prediction? A DiCaprio individual nod shut-out. Now watch him get two tomorrow (three actually, with the Ensemble nod for The Departed.)
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (4/5)
1. *Helen Mirren, The Queen
2. *Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
3. *Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
4. *Penelope Cruz, Volver
5. Annette Bening, Running with Scissors
Alternate: *Kate Winslet, Little Children
No commentary necessary here, I presume. EDIT: I've switched Winslet for Bening. Why not?
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (4/5)
1. *Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
2. *Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
3. Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat: Cultural Learnings...
4. *Peter O'Toole, Venus
5. *Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Alternate: *Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond; Aaron Eckhart, Thank You For Smoking
I'm thinking that Borat has enough takers to make the Cohen nod a sure thing. Very iffy both on O'Toole and Gosling, especially the former; have enough voters seen their films?
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE (4/5)
1. *Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
2. *Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
3. *Adriana Barraza, Babel
4. Emily Blunt, The Devil Wears Prada
5. *Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Alternate: Maggie Gyllenhaal, World Trade Center; *Abigail Breslin and Toni Collette, Little Miss Sunshine
Very tough call(s). I'm feeling a Blanchett snub, but they do like her a lot (Bandits nod in 2002.) I realize it's dangerous to leave out the Sunshine girls, but I feel that the Babel duo is in a much better position. Praying that Blunt makes it through.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE (1/5)
1. *Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
2. Jack Nicholson, The Departed
3. Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
4. Steve Carrell, Little Miss Sunshine
5. Ben Affleck, Hollywoodland
Alternate: *Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed; *Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine; Michael Sheen, The Queen; Brad Pitt, Babel
Hardest category - so many competitors. Expect to do pretty badly here, although I'm really feeling the Wahlberg nod. Not expecting either *Earle Haley or *Hounsou to show up.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A CAST (4/5)
2. *The Departed
3. *Little Miss Sunshine
4. The Devil Wears Prada
Alternate: Half-Nelson (a la Hustle & Flow last year); Running with Scissors; A Prairie Home Companion; Little Children
Don't think The Queen will make it. How come no one else is predicting Bobby? Don't you know that a big cast = nomination?
EDIT: Hah, Leo did end up getting three! Hilarious. Did pretty poorly as expected (17/25 = 68%), but I'm proud of the fact that I called the Bobby ensemble nod in place of The Queen, as well as predicting both Babel girls getting in. Most embarrassing is Supporting Actor, where I predicted that "[n]either Earle Haley or Hounsou [would] show up." Dang.