Friday, December 08, 2006

L.A./N.Y. 2006

* I'll do reactions to NBR plus these awards after the NYFCC's selections have been announced. For the time being, I just want to get these predix out there...


Best Picture: The Departed [alt. Children of Men]
- I thought they'd go for Letters from Iwo Jima, but looking back, L.A.'s not too big on the Clint lately (then again, see below.)

Best Actor: Aaron Eckhart, Thank You For Smoking [alt. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed]
- It's a weak year for leading actors, and we're likely to see the same names pop up over and over again, so I expect it to be one of these four: Whitaker, Eckhart, DiCaprio or Gosling. I'll leave Eckhart from my NBR predix, because I expect him to find a mention somewhere this season.

Best Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen [alt. Naomi Watts, The Painted Veil]
- Last year they went a little "huh" with Vera Farmiga, so I'm thinking they'll go back to the basics and let the Mirren steamroller will barrel onwards. They were certainly on the Staunton bandwagon two years ago.

Best Supporting Actor: Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children [alt. Michael Sheen, The Queen]
- Am I just holding on when all signs point to "no"? I can't believe he's finished just yet. No.

Best Supporting Actress: Maggie Gyllenhaal, Stranger than Fiction + World Trade Center + Trust the Man [alt. Jennifer, Hudson, Dreamgirls]
- These critics love giving prizes for multiple perfs, and they did so with Keener last year for ALL her 2005 films, including The Interpreter.

Best Director: Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima and Flags of Our Fathers [alt. Martin Scorsese, The Departed]
- He hasn't won an award from L.A. since Unforgiven, and was snubbed entirely for the last two Oscar-loved outings: Mystic River and M$B. But perhaps this will be the year they return with love, full of admiration for his back-to-back efforts?

Best Screenplay: Guillermo Arriaga, Babel [alt. Michael Ardnt, Little Miss Sunshine]
Best Cinematography: Tom Stern, Letters from Iwo Jima [alt. Rodrigo Prieto, Babel]
Best Music Score: Alexandre Desplat, The Painted Veil and The Queen [alt. Alberto Iglesias, Volver]
Best Documentary/Non-Fiction Film: An Inconvenient Truth [alt. Deliver Us from Evil]
Best Foreign Language Film: Volver [alt. Pan's Labyrinth]
Best Animation: Monster House [alt. Cars]
Best Production Design: Children of Men [alt. Dreamgirls]


Best Picture: The Departed [alt. United 93]
- Feels appropriate for some reason. Initially, I didn't think both L.A. and N.Y. would go for the same thing, but now... seems the safest bet.

Best Actor: Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson [alt. Ken Watanabe, Letters from Iwo Jima]
- Seems like a very New York-y selection, and it's one of the best reviewed performances of the year in any category.

Best Actress: Penelope Cruz, Volver [alt. Maggie Gyllenhaal, Sherrybaby]
- New York has been known to avoid the obvious selection before; see 2002 when they fell big-time for Far From Heaven and yet gave this award to Diane Lane for Unfaithful.

Best Supporting Actor: Michael Sheen, The Queen [alt. Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children]
- Will he be the critical darling of this season? I can't see Murphy, Pitt or Nicholson grabbing all the prizes...

Best Supporting Actress: Adriana Barraza, Babel [alt. Carmen Maura, Volver]
- I would have placed Hudson here, except the NYCC hasn't really been on board with the recent musical revival.

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Departed [alt. Paul Greengrass, United 93]
- They gave Clint the award for Million Dollar Baby two years ago, so I'm thinking they bow down to Marty this year, who has surprisingly only won this award once - for Goodfellas. But this spot also feels right for Greengrass. I'm so torn.

Best Screenplay: Paul Greengrass, United 93 [alt. Pedro Almodóvar, Volver]
- We always said that he would get support from the critics; let's see if they're up for it.

Best Cinematographer: Emmanuel Lubezki, Children of Men [alt. Tom Stern, Letters from Iwo Jima]
Best Foreign Language Film: Volver [alt. The Lives of Others]
Best Animated Film: A Scanner Darkly [alt. Monster House]
Best Non-Fiction Film:
Shut Up and Sing! [alt. An Inconvenient Truth]
Best First Film: Thank You For Smoking [alt. Little Miss Sunshine]


john said...

you might have gone further in the best actress category & stated that the l.a. critics picked watts for 21grams. & they picked her for runnerup for mulholland dr.

yes they picked staunton, but a lot of good that (& picking vera) did.

of course the noms come first.

jesse said...

I remember when you used to write about films... :-/

Ali said...

John - I've read your comment several times, and I'm still not sure what you're getting at. All I meant that L.A. sometimes goes with the frontrunner, and sometimes they don't. And yes, Watts is definitely a factor - that's why I have her in my alternate spot.

Jesse - These days with essays and exams, it's much easier to dash off predictions rather than write reviews. Once my last exam is over, I plan to include a lot more commentary on the films themselves rather than their awards potential. I also want to finish my performance list.

Nick M. said...

Is that "OMG" appropriately placed next to She's the Man for Channing T.?

Care for a tampon to help your nose stop bleeding?

Ali said...

Why yes, how thoughtful of you.

Channing T actually showed some personality in this film, which was a nice surprise. But the OMG is reserved for the movie as a whole, which is so atrociously acted and poorly crafted that I couldn't help but enjoy it. Amanda Bynes is so awful that her performance actually... works? Once I stopped trying to be all critic-y, it was a fun ride.

DL said...

I really enjoyed She's the Man.

And it had nothing to do with Channing Tatum's tendency to parade around shirtless.

Nope. Not at all.

jesse said...

So some film discussion... and about She's the Man?

Love it. :D

Pretty much agree with all your thoughts on it. It's surprisingly enjoyable.

Anonymous said...

"I miss you Ali". (read in muffled tone as if from underneath various books, assignments, exam notes).

"I love my classes which are reconfiguring my consciousness, but two hours ago I became resentful. Deeply so."