Why do this at 4am in the morning? Because I want to avoid doing work or going to bed, plus all my fellow bloggers are doing it. Yes, I know I am quite behind with all this, but better late than never. I'm going with my gut in a lot of these...
1. Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
2. George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Paul Haggis, Crash
4. Steven Spielberg, Munich
5. James Mangold, Walk the Line
alt. Fernando Meirelles, The Constant Gardener or Ron Howard, Cinderella Man
Well, the first two are pretty much locks, that much can be said. Although I am getting ahead of myself, it will be interesting to see who takes it - Lee already won in 2000, so will the guild spread the wealth (Clooney) or re-award the former (like Ron Howard)? But back to the point... after Crash's strong showing yesterday with PGA and WGA, it seems like this film is really, really, *really* beloved by Hollywood (duh, Ali). I guess I am just not eager to see Haggis's name on the list tomorrow, but it looks more and more likely that the film will end up on Oscar's Best Picture shortlist (everyone loves it - Jodie Foster, Oprah, etc). The likely SAG Ensemble nomination it will get tomorrow just sweetens the deal. Nathaniel was right. It's lasted this long (since March), so that's why it will likely end up on the roster. As for Munich, I don't think it's quite dead yet. By this point, the film has had time to settle a little bit, and the controversy that greeted its release in mid-December seems to have calmed. I still don't know how it will fare with Oscar, but right now I don't know who else to predict (Spielberg does well with the DGA). And James Mangold - I have him predicted for the spot that some other director will fill on Oscar's roster (re: Marc Forster, Gary Ross, etc). My alternates are Meirelles and Howard, although I'm also feeling Peter Jackson as well. The possibilities are endless.
Cast of Brokeback Mountain
Cast of Capote
Cast of Cinderella Man
Cast of Crash
Cast of Good Night, and Good Luck
Cast of Walk the Line
alt. Casts of The Squid and the Whale or Pride and Prejudice [it's, again, endless - could be any film with a well-reviewed cast]
Hey, they had six nominees last year, why not again? Brokeback, Crash and Walk the Line seem like safe bets here. Good Night, and Good Luck is shaky in my mind - aside from Strathairn, who else can be immediately singled out? I suppose Frank Langella? And as for Cinderella Man, I have a dreadful gut instinct that it will resurface big-time. Let's hope I'm wrong. I also want to place Pride and Prejudice in there, but I have no room. This category is a total puzzler.
Joan Allen, The Upside of Anger
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, TransAmerica
Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
alt. Naomi Watts, King Kong or Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Fairly standard picks here with the exception of Joan Allen, who hasn't had the best season so far. This is the last chance she has to make a comeback, so let's hope it happens. Theron and Zhang are dead, IMO (watch this statement come back to haunt me tomorrow, eh?).
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle and Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck
alt. Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man or Ralph Fiennes, The Constant Gardener
I'm having a lot of trouble with this category, because I have a feeling that Crowe is going to be a major player in the end. Then again, the thought of Howard as a double nominee (wait, actually that would be triple with the Crash Ensemble nom) is too good to pass up, re: Jamie Foxx last year.
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Catherine Keener, Capote
Shirley Maclaine, In Her Shoes
Thandie Newton, Crash
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain
alt. Diane Keaton, The Family Stone or Amy Adams, Junebug
I'm going to really mess up this category. For some reason, I'm thinking Crash goes over big tomorrow (as well as Capote). Will I regret it? Time will tell. Bello and Williams seem safe to me (although vote splitting could affect the former, true). Shirley Maclaine seems like a good pick, what with Cloris Leachman last year.
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Terrence Howard, Crash
alt. Frank Langella, Good Night and Good Luck or Kevin Costner, The Upside of Anger
I'm leaving Gyllenhaal out because I think he'll end up pushed into Lead (in a repeat of the Globes fiasco). Something tells me that he will have the most problems with category confusion with Oscar (not Maria Bello or Laura Linney). I'm also thinking that Clooney is in trouble because Syriana doesn't feel like a movie that SAG would embrace. Still, I'm leaving him in... I don't know who to replace him with...
I hope we have some (pleasant) surprises in store tomorrow.