Movie thoughts going through my head today

(Self-mantra: I will do this weekly, I will do this weekly, I will I will I will...)

1. No detailed Oscar postmortem this year (I imagine you all sighing sighs of relief); indeed, what can be gushed over, dissected, and criticized that hasn't been already? Highlights: Academy Award Winner Tilda Swinton, the Once song winners, everything Jon Stewart post-opening monologue and the voters' quality choices (minus Original Screenplay and Visual Effects.) Fashion choices were decidedly ho-hum this year, with my shout-outs going to a select few: Katherine Heigl (reminiscent, somehow, of A+ Charlize Theron in year of Cider House and my favourite out of the legion reds), Diane Lane (best fashion accessory: Josh Brolin; also works vice-versa), Jennifer Hudson (say what you will about the boobs, it was a vast improvement over last year and I like the freshness), Penelope Cruz (didn't like it much on the Red Carpet, but definitely grew on me by the time she presented Foreign Language Film) and Tilda (she has her share of detractors, and I prefer her BAFTA dress, but this midnight number still won me over.) [EDIT: And The Lovely Laura Linney of course! How could I forget?]

Major grievance: who was in charge of choosing the clips this year? Were they even watching the precursor races this season? Fact: Daniel Day-Lewis had some great moments in There Will Be Blood beyond "I've abandoned my boy!", and the Academy would have earned points if they boldly went with milkshake fun. Ditto for Ronan's "Yes, I saw him with my own eyes", Bardem's "Friend-o" and Blanchett's "I'm a hurricane or tsunami or whatever." And out of one-hundred-and-two minutes of running time, why did they have to choose the Norbit make-up clip in which Eddie Murphy plays an offensive Asian stereotype?

Finally, unless you were watching the Red Carpet arrivals on CTV, you probably missed this keeper: Ben Mulroney *totally* got burned by Julian Schnabel, but to be perfectly honest, the grating entertainment guru had it coming (the co-host of eTalk Daily and son of former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, he's the equivalent of a Canadian Ryan Seacrest.) He called The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and Before Night Falls "triumph(s) of the human spirit", to which Schnabel responded curtly, "That sounds like a cliché." Mulroney countered with something along the lines of "Well, clichés can often be true!", but Schnabel, eyes rolling, had already walked away mid-interview.

2. A few of my fellow bloggers have already made closure with the year that was 2007 and have posted predictions for next year's awards season. Just skimming over these makes my head spin, but the Oscar addict within has obviously been sparked. Milk and Revolutionary Road seem like popular predictions, which surely means that one of these will falter at the finish line. Is it just me, or does Doubt look like another Proof in-the-making? Adaptations of heralded plays rarely find favor with Oscar, although I suppose that the drool-worthy cast makes a big difference. I'll agree with Streep and Adams (for now), but I'm thinking snubs in Picture/Director/Actor/Adapted Screenplay. By the way, can I just say how pleased I am that the amazing Viola Davis is returning to the big screen in two films this year? This woman can do miracles with minutes - nay, seconds - of screen-time.

I'm not going to offer extensive thoughts on this issue until September (at the earliest), but for now, let me just say that:

(a) I don't see the Heath Ledger posthumous nod for The Dark Knight happening.
(b) Kate Winslet stands a good shot of winning Best Actress this year; let's just hope that her campaigns for Revolutionary Road and The Reader don't confuse voters in a Leo DiCaprio 2006-type situation...
(c) ...unless Julianne Moore gets nominated for Blindness; then which Oscar bridesmaid will the Academy rally behind?

3. As if this past week hasn't been euphoric enough for rabid actressexuals everywhere, Nick Davis of Nick's Flick Picks has unveiled his long-in-the-making project ("The Best Actress Academy Awards") rating, ranking and celebrating Oscar's favorite Lead Women. Most people who read this blog will likely already know about this delightful development, but if this somehow comes as news to you, off you go! I have spent 95% 40% of my weekend reading his yearly profiles, and feeling shamed about how much catching up I have to do. But I will certainly be using Nick's recommendations as a guide on where to start, and if you're feeling relatively newbie, so should you.

4. My friend Alex and I have recently established a movie-going tradition: if anything in the "step-to-rep" genre (my coinage) is released theatrically, we are all over it. Preferably on opening night, to view it with audience members who actually like this sort of thing. What began as an experiment with the god-awful Step Up has continued with classics such as Stomp the Yard and most recently Step Up 2 the Streets.

Quite honestly, I don't go into these street dance slash b-boying slash b-girling films with an agenda. I try my best to keep an open mind and seek out potentially novel ideas being articulated about race, education and class in America. Unfortunately, each one of these has been a disappointment in this regard (although I must confess that the choreography on display and watching these dancers face off has been a real pleasure to watch.) Often, these plot lines follow a familiar path (troubled at-risk teen is forced to attend a snooty prep institution against his or her will; deals with torn allegiances between their authentic street roots and the new possibilities that lie ahead; and finally discovers that dance/stepping/stomping will help them articulate their frustrations to fruitful ends.) The conventional formula aside, the characterizations and situations are regressive to the point of insulting stereotypes (a stock Asian-American character in the latest vehicle speaks with a thick accent, and is employed as a cheap joke - "I love Amelicaaa!"). The depictions of masculinity are even more clueless (the weakness of the sissy boys in dance class is constantly placed in contrast to the brawn of the male lead) and all characters of colour are reduced to easy caricatures. Here's hoping that the just-announced Step Up 3-D can marry an imaginative storyline with exciting stepping moves. C-

Lonerdom

It is only natural that getting to know people should take some time. Everyday, I watch for the old man with the flowers. And I wonder... was he born here? Did he love someone here? Did he lose someone here? He doesn't seem as curious about me, but that's all right. These days, I'm something of a loner myself. I'm pretty good at staying entertained. Mostly, I like to hang out at a little bar I know, conveniently located in my backyard.

Too Good to Be True

Just how happy does the image above make you? Share your elation in the comments section. I'm simply over the moon. I'm going to be talking about this for the next three months. Full Oscar postmortem coming soon...

Why not?

I originally wasn't planning on posting any predictions, but I have nothing to do until the Red Carpet Specials start popping up in a couple of hours. Anyways, it's fun to look back on these posts years later and reflect on the excitement, impatience and vote-flopping indecision that precedes each telecast. Much luck to you on your picks: may all of your favourites win. Unless they aren't the same as mine. Then you're on your own.

+PICTURE: No Country for Old Men (This would be my pick, although I'd be pleased by a Michael Clayton upset.)

+DIRECTOR: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men (Again, my pick(s). A win for Julian Schnabel isn't out of the question. Could totally happen, although I'm really hoping it won't.)

+ACTRESS: Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose (The BAFTA win probably came at just the right time, just over a week before AMPAS ballots were due. Don't we need a biopic performance winning somewhere in the acting races? I'm also guessing Christie's SAG acceptance speech didn't exactly charm voters. I'm a Christie supporter through-and-through, although I think Marion would be a perfectly respectable Oscar choice.)

+ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood (Lock. My vote: I'm still torn between Tommy Lee Jones and Viggo.)

-SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ruby Dee, American Gangster (I have no idea whose name to pencil in here, so I'm staying with my original prediction and am guessing that sentiment influences the vote. This will probably be the last chance the Academy has to honor Dee, and the others in this category will have many more chances in the future. I'll be glued to my t.v. when this category is handed out. My vote: Swinton, of course.) [The Oscar went to TILDA! Never have I been so thrilled to be wrong.]

+SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men (Lock #2, and my favorite in this category.)

-ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood (The Coens have already won a writing prize for Fargo, and with their win almost a done deal in the directing category, voters may want some fresh blood in this race. This is Anderson's third nomination for writing, and the third time may just be the trick (it worked for Charlie Kaufman, didn't it?) Plus, can the Coen Brothers really win all four categories they are nominated in? My vote: Sarah Polley, although I'd be just as happy with a No Country win here.) [The Oscar went to the Coen Bros.]

+ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: El Diablo, Juno. (Can we not talk about it, please? I'd be most happy with a win for Tony Gilroy here.)

-ANIMATED FILM: Persepolis (Risky, yes, but who saw the win for Spirited Away coming? Plus, people may feel enough is enough with Pixar forever dominating this category.) [The Oscar went to Brad Bird for Ratatouille.]

+CINEMATOGRAPHY: Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood (I'm thinking Deakins splits his support, while Kaminski's two wins work against him. Plus, as precedent tells us, a nomination in Art Direction often helps here.)

- ART DIRECTION: Jack Fisk and co., There Will Be Blood (Spoiler: Dante Feretti and co., Sweeney Todd) [The Oscar went to Sweeney Todd.]

+COSTUME DESIGN: Alexandra Byrne, Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Bad reviews don't really matter in this category; see Marie Antoinette and Memoirs of a Geisha.)

+EDITING: Christopher Rouse, The Bourne Ultimatum (Showy, frantic cuts often impress voters here: Black Hawk Down, The Matrix, etc.)

+MAKE-UP: La Vie En Rose (A sure thing, and the team deserves the win.)

+ORIGINAL SCORE: Dario Marianelli, Atonement (It's memorable and lasting, which stands out amongst the pack here; crossing my fingers for James Newton Howard.)

+ORIGINAL SONG: Glen Hansard and Markéta Irglová for "Falling Slowly", Once

-SOUND MIXING: Transformers (The press for Oscar bridesmaid Kevin O'Connell has likely paid off.) [The Oscar went to The Bourne Ultimatum.]

- SOUND EFFECTS EDITING: No Country for Old Men (The lack of a score makes the work here really stand out.) [The Oscar went to The Bourne Ultimatum.)

-VISUAL EFFECTS: Transformers (Better this than The Golden Compass. Yucky.) [The Oscar went to the fakey polar bears. Figures.]


MY TALLY
No Country for Old Men - 4
There Will Be Blood - 4
La Vie En Rose - 2
Transformers - 2
American Gangster - 1
Atonement - 1
The Bourne Ultimatum - 1
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - 1
Juno - 1
Once - 1
Persepolis - 1

OSCAR's TALLY
No Country for Old Men - 4
The Bourne Ultimatum - 3
There Will Be Blood - 2
La Vie En Rose - 2
Atonement - 1
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - 1
The Golden Compass - 1
Juno - 1
Michael Clayton - 1
Once - 1
Ratatouille - 1
Sweeney Todd - 1

12 out of 19 = 63%

I know so little about the nominees in the Documentary and Foreign Language Film races this year, so I'll abstain from predicting. I look forward to catching up with them on video though.

Happy Oscars, all!

Best Actress

Hermitage Exterior

Lagaan: Once Upon a Time in India

"The historiography of Indian nationalism has for a long time been dominated by elitism - colonialist elitism and bourgeois-nationalist elitism. Both these varieties of elitism share the prejudice that the making of the Indian nation and the development of the consciousness - nationalism - which informed this process were exclusively or predominantly elite achievements... [This historical writing] fails to acknowledge, far less interpret, the contribution made by the people on their own, that is, independently of the elite, to the making and development of this nationalism."

- Ranajit Guha, "On Some Aspects of the Historiography of Colonial India", Selected Subaltern Studies

Ashutosh Gowariker's Lagaan: Once Upon a Time in India (2001) is perhaps one of the most visible and oft-celebrated Indian films ever made, and for good reason. Even those moviegoers largely unfamiliar with cinema from South Asia can still make reference to that "long Indian movie about cricket". The film is a rare specimen in that it was able to enchant audiences and critics alike, scoring mightily at the box office in India, winning every national award in sight, and riding that ecstatic word of mouth all the way to the 2002 Oscars (it is only the third film from India to receive a Foreign Language Film nomination, alongside Mother India and Salaam Bombay.) Unabashedly steeped in the conventions of commercial Bollywood cinema (a near-four hour running time, musical dance numbers, unrepentant melodrama), the film also serves as an impressive critical intervention in South Asian historiography without ever becoming inaccessible or lofty. In fact, the temptation to simplistically (even condescendingly) frame it as a Bollywoodized "David versus Goliath" feel-good cricket fable has been so tempting that many have overlooked the significant implications made about colonial India, native resistance and the long road to Independence in 1947. For this reason, I open with Guha's tremendously influential words because they hint at the lens through Gowariker represents and gives a voice to the ignored subaltern. Call it the anti-Gandhi if you will: these agrarian farmers of Champaner resist not with swords and fists in the tradition of those mindlessly violent and easily swayed masses, but with cricket bats and a fierce determination to resist imperialist greed.

As the film's narrator (Amitabh Bachchan) informs the audience, it is 1893, and British rule is well established across South Asia. Champaner, a small village in the state of Gujurat, has been suffering through a period of crop-stunting drought for two years. This is a cause for major concern for the entire hamlet, as the villagers are obligated to hand over a third of their agricultural produce as tax ("lagaan") to their Raja (seasoned actor Kulbhushan Kharbanda). In turn, this tithe is handed over to the British, who offer the Raja military protection from neighboring feudal lords. When a cocky young farmer from Champaner named Bhuvan (played by Aamir Khan) catches the ire of snotty Captain Andrew Russell (Paul Blackthorne) from a nearby British cantonment, the stakes are raised. Russell, bored with the unadventurous status quo, makes a bet with the desperate villagers. He will forgo lagaan for three years - not only for Champaner, but for the entire province - if they are able to beat him and his seasoned teammates in a game of cricket ("gilli danda" for the villagers). If the Champaner contingent loses, they will have to pay three times lagaan to the regent, along with the rest of the accompanying villages in the region. Naturally, Bhuvan's fellow villagers are absolutely outraged at his agreement to these terms, but our hero has conviction in spades. Russell's kind-hearted sister Elizabeth (Rachel Shelley) opts to secretly help the Champaner team with learning the game, hoping to even the playing field between the two sides. The rest of the film explores how Bhuvan assembles a team of eccentrics, falls in love with the lovely village belle (a fesity Gracy Singh, making her screen debut) and negotiates oppression, prejudice and difference (in and outside of the village.)

Lest one forget, this is also a through-and-through musical, with six such interludes sprinkled throughout. However, these enchanting songs (composed by South Indian maestro A. R. Rahman) play an active role in pushing the narrative forward, and are not employed as burdensome time wasters. The stunningly choreographed "Ghanan Ghanan" is a show stopper in which the entire village celebrates in anticipation of a thirst-quenching and crop-saving rainstorm which never quite comes. In "Mitwa O Mitwa", Bhuvan sings a song of camaraderie, empowerment and hope in order to convince fellow villagers to join the gilli danda team (some choice lyrics: "Listen, O my friend, what is this fear you have? This earth is ours, and so is the sky!"). "Chale Chalo" is a rousing, percussion-heavy call-to-arms (or call-to-cricket-bats) in which the villagers prepare for the fateful game. And in my favourite song and dance sequence, "Radha Kaise Na Jale" (translated roughly as "How can Radha not be jealous?") Bhuvan and Gauri playfully act out the courtship of the goddess Radha by the Lord Krishna. She doubts his dedication due to his roaming eye for the gopis (cow-herding village girls), while he maintains that her jealousy is utterly unfounded. Of course, Gauri's invocation of Radha here is a thinly-veiled cover for her suspicion that Bhuvan has fallen in love with Elizabeth. It is not far-fetched to argue that deleting the songs for non-Indian audiences in an effort to lessen the running time (a rumour circulated during awards season of that year) would severely hurt the film. At many theatrical screenings, it was not uncommon to hear applause, cheers and whistles after each song.

While Lagaan certainly carries the baggage of a beat-all-odds "sports movie" (scenes of training for the big game, confronting obstacles from all directions, and the pre-climax threat of crippling defeat all follow in typical fashion), more fun is mined from picking up on Gowariker's sly winks at his audience: the man has obviously read his theory. True, there's something convenient about the all-inclusive policy of who can play on the Champaner gilli-danda team (Hindu men, a Muslim, a Sikh, and an untouchable are all represented), but Gowariker also understands how communal and religious tensions are informed, fueled and nurtured by colonial divide-and-rule policies, not by an a priori intolerance of difference. Moreover, Lagaan's conflict is not squarely characterized in a top-down structure (solely mustache-twirling Brits stamping on those poor, defenseless brown people), but in a Foucauldian network of power relations. The issue of caste is especially key here, and while Bhuvan's passionate plea to his fellow villagers to allow untouchable villager Kachra to integrate may seem like a stretch, the film makes an astonishing statement about the nature of modernity and how culture is fluid (not a fixed phenomenon.) Bhuvan even uses ancient Hindu scripture to bolster his argument, citing examples about how the Lord Ram once ate berries from the garden of a tribal woman, and that the boatman who ferries souls in the Afterlife lacks a varna himself. Moreover, throughout the film, Bhuvan not only faces the brunt of Russell's racism, but opposition from the Raja, his village elders, and Lakha, a conspiring jealous teammate in cahoots with Russell.

Even more fascinating are the screenplay's flirtations with Occidentalist characterizations and reverse Other constructions. While Blackthorne's sneering Captain Russell essentially embodies colonial greed and violence, his sister Elizabeth is so committed to aiding Bhuvan and the villagers that she actually fantasizes about becoming a part of their community (prancing around in full gagra choli, no less!) In one of the film's winsome musical numbers "O Rey Chori", in which Bhuvan finally confesses his true feelings to Gauri, Elizabeth imagines a happy life as Bhuvan's wife and sings:

My heart, it speaks a thousand words, I feel eternal bliss/
The roses sprout their scarlet mouths, like offering a kiss/
No drop of rain, no glowing flame, has ever been so pure/
If being in love can feel like this, then I'm in love for sure!

The scene, replete with curtains flapping in the wind, white doves and loud emotions is intentionally meant to be ridiculous (much credit goes to Rachel Shelley for being such a good sport about the lyrics.) At every single screening I attended back in 2001 (three shows in total), the predominantly South Asian-Canadian audience never failed to break into embarrassed titters, and it was clear why - goras aren't supposed to sing in these movies! Gowariker in essence reverses the direction of the Gaze here; it is the white lady who is Othered here, not the exotic Indian woman. However, the degree of Elizabeth's love and admiration for Bhuvan is not trivialized as a result - in a Bollywood musical, it is only appropriate her love is articulated in song (and in English, for that matter.) At the close of her fantasy, Elizabeth even applies a bindi to her forehead, to mark herself as a Hindu woman. Rarely has the concept of hybridity and culture-crossing been dealt with so cleverly and complexly. When she and Bhuvan part for good at the end of the film, it is difficult not to feel sorrow for this romance that could not be.

Aamir Khan has always been a captivating and winsome performer, who had appeared in many late '80s and '90s romantic blockbusters prior to Lagaan. But until this collaboration with Gowariker, the steel in his eyes and the earnesty in his voice had never been showcased to such effective ends. Bhuvan, with his faultless personality, socially-progressive ideas and ever-good intentions, is not the most exciting or textured character on paper. However, Khan makes him a magnetic force, whether staring down his opponents or raising morale in his fellow teammates. In a lesser film with a less discerning actress, Gracy Singh's Gauri probably would have been relegated completely the sidelines, only appearing for a dance number when necessary. Thankfully, she is a constant presence throughout the entire film. Her character is the first to embrace Bhuvan's ambitious project, and she insists on attending all the training sessions to lend support and input. While there may be an element of misogyny in how she repeatedly falls into fits of jealousy every time Bhuvan interacts with Elizabeth ("Tell me Bhuvan, why is that White Witch willing to help you?"), Singh is able to amazingly evade caricature. She is also an expert comedian, and her full expressive eyes are certainly her greatest asset here: consider the hysterical scenes in which she worriedly spies on Bhuvan and Elizabeth discussing cricket rules.

Rachel Shelley is compassionate and moving as a British woman struggling with her allegiance and identity as an outsider wanting in. Much credit should go to the actor for convincing us that a powerful and elevated woman of status in that period, with its norms about racial hierarchy, could fall in love with an Indian peasant farmer. Paul Blackthorne's Captain Russell is not afforded much dimension beyond hatred of all things Indian, but he sneers and condescends fittingly. A cast of established character actors round out the Champaner gilli danda team, special notice going to Raghuvir Yadav as a frazzled chicken farmer and booming Rajesh Vivek as the opinionated village seer, who provides superb comic relief. Meanwhile, Rajendranath Zutshi hints at a fascinating back story as Muslim Ismayeel with his limited screen time, and Yashpal Sharma's expressions are always priceless. Also deserving of special mention is Javed Singh as conflicted Ram Singh, a servant in the Raja's palace, who allows us to understand how Indians placed in positions of authority over their fellow countrymen face complicated realities about loyalty and kinship.

As already mentioned, A. R. Rahman's work as composer contributes a great deal of information about this land and its people, seeking inspiration from rustic folk music and the structure of the classical Hindu epics. Costume designer Bhanu Athaiya, who won an Oscar for Gandhi, could have easily recycled her work from that epic film, but is nicely attuned to how the Gujurati agrarian community is varied in terms of dress itself (distinguished village leaders versus the constituents of the village, the Raja's golden fineries versus the dhotis of the farmers, the particulars of Muslim apparel versus Hindu garb, etc.) The finery of Russell and Elizabeth's ensembles are never overstated, while the redcoats of the British army look appropriately lived-in. Anil Mehta's cinematography does amazing things with the flat, dry landscape of the Bhuj desert, a pronounced departure from the bleeding crimsons and dazzling sapphire blues in 1999's Hum Dil De Chuke Sanam, which he lensed just before this film. Art director Nitin Desai (another alumnus of Sanam) and his team traveled to Bhuj four months before shooting began in order to erect an authentically period township. Editor Ballu Saluja deserves special praise for making a four-hour-long film seem like half the length; his work assembling the cricket match is especially commendable. Interesting fact: to add an additional layer of authenticity, the screenplay was written and performed in the dialect of Avadhi.

By presenting a village of peasants as political beings struggling against imperial exploitation through non-violent means, Gowariker writes back into history the voices that elitist historiography has overlooked or silenced. Nationalism then, Guha and Gowariker remind us, is not an exclusive pursuit by personalities such as Mohandas Gandhi, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, and others who are often credited with "leading" the Indian people to Independence. As the narrator informs us at the close, "Even after this historic victory, Bhuvan's name was lost somewhere in the pages of history." What other stories of native resistance have been suffocated by master narratives over the decades? Yes, Lagaan is an endearing film about overcoming the greatest of odds, but look closer at how Gowariker has also played the conventions of commercial Hindi cinema to his advantage. Working both as a populist crowd pleaser and scholarly dissertation, Lagaan is magical Bollywood cinema at its most winsome. A

Food for thought

Only twice has the Screen Actors Guild accurately predicted the acting races (4/4) at the Oscars: in 2005 (Swank/Foxx/Blanchett/Freeman), and in 1998 (Nicholson/Hunt/Basinger & Stuart/Williams). And even then, I don't think they deserve points for that last one, giving kudos to Gloria Stuart as well as eventual winner Kim Basinger.

As such, I'm not so comfortable with my predicted winners list as it stands presently. Is it really going to be Christie, Day-Lewis, Dee and Bardem yapping away at the podium on Oscar night? This thought occurred to me while submitting a comment for Adam's musings on this year's Supporting Actress race. Even in the most monotonous "locked and loaded" years, there has been slight variation between SAG and AMPAS's choices. Let's look at the facts...

Among the boys (SAG/Oscar):
- Harris/Spacey in '96
- Duvall/Coburn in '99
- Del Toro/Crowe; Finney/Del Toro in '01 (although this was more attributed to category confusion than anything else.)
- Crowe/Washington; McKellen/Broadbent in '02
- Day-Lewis/Brody; Walken/Cooper in '03
- Depp/Penn in '04
- Giamatti/Clooney in '06
- Murphy/Arkin in '07

The two voting bodies are a tad more consistent with the female actors: seven gals have won the Actor statuette without going on to grab the Oscar, in contrast to the aforementioned eleven men: Jodie Foster (Nell), Kate Winslet (Sense and Sensibility), Lauren Bacall (The Mirror Has Two Faces), Kathy Bates (Primary Colors), Annette Bening (American Beauty), Judi Dench (Chocolat), Helen Mirren (Gosford Park), and Renee Zellweger (Chicago).

Statistically speaking then, we have to have an upset in the making somewhere. Most would point a finger at the Supporting Actress race, often cited as the breeding ground for such shockeroos. But I have a hard time letting go of Dee - Blanchett has already won, Ryan is the critics' darling a la Virginia Madsen, Swinton doesn't have the heat, and the nomination's the reward for Ronan.

But if not here, then where? Actor and Supporting Actor look pretty locked up right now, and while former winner Julie Christie might be this year's Sissy Spacek, Halle Berry was still able to swing SAG in that dead heat race.

Where will it be? Where!!? Or is this going to be another 2005?

Sarah Silverman has something to confess

My favourite line? (SPOILERS) "Remember when I told you I was fucking Matt Damon? I was fucking Matt Damon!"

R.I.P. Heath Ledger

1979-2008

In the very few hours I've had to myself since the news broke (usually between intensive lectures, lengthy classroom observations and broken units of sleep), I've been pouring over every write-up and tribute on display. A post I keep reading is Nathaniel's first words on Ledger's passing; I had returned to Nate's blog Tuesday afternoon to chat some more about the Oscar nominations announced earlier that day. When I saw that photo and those years in closed brackets, my heart sank into my gut instantly. Although I fully knew what this meant, I didn't want it to compute. I followed the accompanying links, additionally tapping away the addresses of every familiar online news source (entertainment-related or not) in order to verify this claim. And then I went back to that original post and sat there for about ten minutes with my mouth ludicrously agape. Eventually, I had to pull myself together and attend a linguistics lecture. I was able to make light conversation with my classmates and pay attention to the professor's points, but I had that same pit in my stomach throughout.

It still hasn't gone away. The more newspaper articles, emotional reactions and pictures I seem to consume, the less I'm able to understand it. I feel so distanced from the whole thing now, and in a strange way, I feel compelled to read Nathaniel's words again and again to really come to terms with it. The sense of loss is even more acutely felt when taking into account the sudden passing of Brad Renfro just a few days earlier (I've been a fan since The Client, and yes, even Tom & Huck.)

It seems so off, so improperly timed. After Brokeback Mountain, Candy and I'm Not There, it felt like he was just getting started. And his film career aside, I had grown used to his adorably dumpy fashion sense, that goofy smile and his distinctive nervous-but-generous chortle.

I don't have much to offer here, but the blog seems like the obvious place to jot down some thoughts.

No Oscar for (Homeless) Young Men

A strange morning, to say the least. In the same format as last year, here are my thoughts...

THE "I AM FEELING NEUTRAL ABOUT THIS" STUFFs
- What on earth happened to Into the Wild this morning? Did whisperings and write-ups about Sean Penn's personal life of late hurt the campaign this badly? I thought everyone in Hollywood loved this movie (see SAG.) Although that nifty Editing nomination points toward a Best Picture nod in-the-making, it appears nowhere else except in the Supporting Actor race. What of Eddie Wedder & co.'s songs? The Wild camp must be hurting badly right now. But grouchy Mr. Penn must be relieved that he won't have to sit through yet another awards ceremony this year (that is, if it even happens what with WGA and all.)
- Atonement manages to pull off a Best Picture nomination after all, indicating that the film has more fans within the Academy than I had originally figured. I thought the Joe Wright picture would be this year's Dreamgirls like many other bloggers, but I suppose one should never underestimate the British period prestige contender. Good for Wright & co. I'm not ga-ga over all of the hit-and-miss Atonement, but I do lurve that first half with Ronan as Briony.
- With Jason Reitman's surprise appearance in the directing category, does the Best Picture race now come down to No Country for Old Men versus Juno?
- Philip Seymour Hoffman's appearance in the Supporting Actor race now means I'll have to watch Charlie Wilson's War.
- The Simpsons Movie booted out of Animated Feature for Surf's Up. While I heard surprisingly good word-of-mouth regarding the latter, I totally thought those Springfeldians were a lock here simply due to the popularity and lasting power of their film.
- I'm not a fan of The Bourne Identity trilogy, but it's nice to see that it's finally made an impact this year (I accurately predicted all three of its nominations.) Ultimatum is probably my least favourite of the three though.
- Sweeney Todd missing in Makeup and Cinematography? Weird.

THE GOOD STUFFs
- I was correct in intuiting that voters had not forgotten about Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah, but dead wrong in figuring that a vote thrown his way for No Country for Old Men would suffice. This is probably my favourite nomination this morning - it's heartening to know that a seemingly forgotten performance like this one can still make it in the final five without any precursor love at all.
- (Expected) strong showings for No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood.
- Say hello to Academy-Award nominees Tilda Swinton and Viggo Mortensen. S'about time!
- Ronan! Atwood! Marianelli!
- I share Glenn's er... enthusiasm in celebrating Sarah Polley's Away From Her Adapted Screenplay mention. This is obviously a "we're sorry we couldn't nominate you in the directing category" nod, but Sarah and I will take it.
- No Country for Old Men is recognized in both the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories. KABLOOIE. In the same regard, I hope Transformers remains an Academy Award nominee, nothing more. (My ears!)
- Cheers for Casey Affleck, even if he is nominated in the wrong category.
- I should have known that Enchanted's most showy and memorable musical number ("Happy Working Song", in which Amy Adams frolics with a sizable number of New York City's pest population) would be remembered come voting time.
- While on the topic of Original Songs, congrats to the Once camp for "Falling Slowly" being recognized. I don't like the film very much, but I'm not so crusty as to obnoxiously poo-poo the stellar soundtrack as well. This means we'll actually get to see it performed if the ceremony goes on as planned!
- Michael Moore's flawed, funny Sicko gets a Documentary mention. Hopefully this will get more people to watch it.
- Roger Deakins thankfully gets in for both Jesse James and No Country for Old Men. But now will he lose to Janusz Kaminski's gimmicky Diving Bell aesthetics?
- James Newton Howard's Original Score nomination for Michael Clayton - that pulsing, jangling score was über-intense. Great stuff.
- Ruby Dee! Not one of my personal picks, but I certainly preferred her to Catherine Keener or Vanessa Redgrave. Slap him again Ruby!
- Tony Gilroy gets two nominations for his feature film debut. Go Team Clayton.

THE BAD STUFFs
- Jason Reitman for Juno? One of the best-directed films of the year? Ok. Not a travesty by any means, but come on people.
- Angelina Jolie, where art thou? One of the hardest snubs to swallow this morning, even if Linney managed to make it in. Speaking of Linney, love it, but I'm going to pretend that nod is for Jindabyne instead.
- The wig-wearin', hairline-raisin' Cate Blanchett - just like last year - party crashes a category that could have accommodated more deserving nominees. But we knew this was coming, right? Good for her on that I'm Not There shout-out though.
- I haven't seen any of the Foreign-Language films nominated here. Are you listening, Canadian distributors!!?
- More Pirates repeating their same adventures in the Caribbean? Thankfully the future holds no more installments of that franchise (hopefully.) I tried watching this on video, but couldn't make it past the first ten minutes.

THE DOWNRIGHT PAINFUL STUFFs
- Here's an obvious moment to further abuse Norbit, but why bother? I'm more interested to see if it can achieve that rare distinction of being both an Oscar and Razzie winner.
- The Golden Compass for Visual Effects? Ew! I thought this was one of the film's weakest elements. Those polar bears looked so fake, and the daemons fared even worse.
- WHERE IS ALEXANDRE DESPLAT???! They have now snubbed three Oscar-worthy scores of his (Birth, The Painted Veil, and now Lust, Caution.) Bad form!

THIS NOW MEANS I HAVE TO WATCH
- Charlie Wilson's War
- The Kite Runner
- Lars and the Real Girl
- 3:10 to Yuma
- Persepolis (obviously, I was going to watch this anyways.)

Oscar Predictions

The blog lives! Readers who know me well can attest to this fact: if there's anything to get me out of a writing slump, it's the Oscars. I've been meaning to update for the last little while, but nothing I could assemble in my drafts seemed quite good enough to post. Most of what I wanted to say about the offerings on display during awards season have already been articulated with more wit and clarity by my peers. Hopefully, a quick capsule review run-down should show up in the next couple of days, to provide some explanation regarding those grades you've seen piling up on the side.

*** Please Note: I reserve the right to tinker with these up until Monday afternoon ***

BEST PICTURE (3/5)
1. No Country for Old Men
2. Into the Wild-
3. Michael Clayton
4. There Will Be Blood
5. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly-
---
6. Juno+
7. Atonement+
8. American Gangster

Yes, I may very well regret omitting Juno from the mix come Tuesday morning. At this point in time though - even with the rave reviews and the rising box office returns and a go-ahead from the PGA - it still doesn't look right to me in the final stretch. My (very) cool feelings towards the film aside, a part of me feels that voters will find it too fluffy and inconsequential in this year of deep and heavy American cinema. I mean, hamburger phones? "Home-skillet"? At the very least, Little Miss Sunshine (irregardless of how you feel about it) doesn't seem like an in-joke the whole way through, depending on pop culture references and quirky, artificial banter to impress. And for what it's worth, the beloved indie darling couldn't even muster up enough support to win an Ensemble nod with the SAG, what one would consider an easy get. The same goes for its bridesmaid status at the Golden Globes, as the HFPA decided to confer their honour of Best Comedy/Musical upon Sweeney Todd instead. A poster at In Contention made the good point that aside from Best Picture, the only certain nods Juno has in the bag are Actress for Ellen Page and Original Screenplay for Diablo Cody - nothing more. A Best Picture nominee with only three overall nominations? Again, many other points could be made to argue that the film is a lock at this point, but I'm just going on an instinct here.

As for Atonement, the GG win and BAFTA love occurred after AMPAS ballots were due, and the film already has a shaky reputation stateside. If the voters are truly feeling "international", I'm thinking they respectfully decline the icy, questionable advances of the Joe Wright film and go for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Granted, Schnabel is a New Yorker and the film was financed with American money, but perhaps that makes my case even more convincing. True, Pan's Labyrinth wasn't able to land a Best Picture nomination at the zenith of its popularity this time last year, but it didn't have a PGA nod. And if the film's tiny box office numbers suggest not enough voters have seen the film, I present the following: Letters from Iwo Jima.

I don't think numbers one through four really need to be explained, considering how well they've all done in the precursors. The Coen Brothers picture is a lock, while Michael Clayton is looking as stable as The Queen did last year (no major citations for the film as a whole, but considered a shoe-in all the same.) Into the Wild didn't have much support from the HFPA or BAFTA, true, but all the American voting bodies have embraced it. There Will Be Blood was looking iffy until the combined power of DGA, PGA and WGA cemented its status as a leading player. All in all, I can see any of these eight in the final five, although I'd be rather pleased if Juno and American Gangster were shut out entirely.

BEST DIRECTOR (3/5)
1. Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
2. Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
4. Sean Penn, Into the Wild-
5. David Cronenberg, Eastern Promises-
---
6. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton+
7. Joe Wright, Atonement
8. Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Missed: Jason Reitman, Juno

First three are looking good, and I'm sure you'd agree with me. Paul Thomas Anderson has had a hit-and-miss relationship with AMPAS throughout the years, but the general feeling at the moment is that it's definitely "his time". Julian Schnabel and the Coen Brothers are safe, while Sean Penn fills that actor-turned-director spot the Academy loves to include every now and then. People really do love the film; even if the film misses out on a Best Picture nod (which I could see happening), I still think he could fill that lone director slot.

The prediction that sticks out here is Cronenberg, which I agree is a very risky one. I'm not even sure I believe it myself, but understand that this inkling is informed neither by fan-boy love or as a supporter of the film in question. I thought Eastern Promises was a shaky-if-entirely-watchable venture, and I even knew not to include him in the year of Violence (which I flat-out worship.) So why now? The directors usually have a surprise up their sleeve every now and then (Mike Leigh for Vera Drake, Fernando Meirelles for City of God, Stephen Daldry for Billy Elliot - all of them missing from the major American precursor lists and considered big shockers), so it's not completely "out there". Plus, with voters scrambling to catch Viggo's performance, I believe the directors' branch (with feelings of residual guilt from '06) will rally to support this Canadian master. Hey, let me live out the fantasy while I can, okay? But it's not that bad - I wouldn't mind if Tony Gilroy took his spot, or even Burton. Ridley Scott, however, is another story altogether.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE (4/5)
1. Julie Christie, Away from Her
2. Marion Cottilard, La Vie En Rose
3. Ellen Page, Juno
4. Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart-
5. Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
---
6. Laura Linney, The Savages+
7. Amy Adams, Enchanted
8. Keira Knightley, Atonement
9. Nikki Blonsky, Hairspray

One thing is for sure: Julie, Marion, Ellen and Angelina can breathe easy and hit the snooze button early Tuesday morning. Everyone seems to agree that it's the fifth spot which presents the most trouble... who will take it? The default nominee? The critical darling? The "it" girl of the moment? The glamorous British import? Each of these women has an equal number of factors for and against her for the final slot. Practically everyone in Hollywood adores Laura Linney, and both her and co-star Philip Seymour Hoffman won rave reviews for The Savages. However, detractors feel she's mined this territory before (frustrated, complex woman deals with unsympathetic sibling) and the lack of GG, SAG and particularly ISA (!) mentions is troubling. Amy Adams had a lot of heat when Enchanted first opened, but there hasn't been much buzz since. Plus, a "breakthrough" nomination may seem repetitive for some voters, since they already handed her one for Junebug a couple of years ago. As for Keira Knightley, who was considered a shoe-in all year long, has suffered from mixed reviews and is arguably a secondary player in Atonement. Plus, voter fatigue for such a young starlet (she was a surprise nominee for Pride and Prejudice a few seasons ago - too much, too soon?) may push another contender into the spotlight.

That's why I'm thinking that Cate Blanchett will appear on the shortlist instead and cement a 5/5 SAG match. Yes, the movie sucks and most people actually seem to realize that (critics and industry folk alike.) However, in such a weak year, a performance like this (showy, real-life personality, delivered by a respected performer) may be a "safe" choice for unsure voters. Plus, she's popping up everywhere (GG, BFCA, SAG, BAFTA), so she definitely still has all of Hollywood and the rest of the world still under her spell. Behold this year's double acting nominee. (Boo.) As for me, I'm crossing my fingers for Adams (Linney and even Knightley would be okay as well.)

Additionally - it's a long shot, but could Nikki Blonsky be this year's Keisha Castle-Hughes? Hm.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (4/5)
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
2. George Clooney, Michael Clayton
3. Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
4. Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
5. Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild-
---
6. Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
7. Denzel Washington, American Gangster
8. Mathieu Amalric, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Missed: Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah+

Day-Lewis and Clooney are definite nominees for Blood and Clayton respectively, while Johnny Depp will likely join them in the race to the gold (true, no SAG mention, but that omission was attributed to a lack of screeners sent out as opposed than a willful snub of all things Sweeney Todd.) It also seems like the perfect time for the Academy to honour the work of Viggo Mortensen, who finally picked up steam this awards season for Eastern Promises. The actor has always been well-liked, but his most popular roles (Aragorn in Lord of the Rings, Tom/Joey in A History of Violence) have also been his most understated and subtle (read: not tailor-made for winning prizes.) With Nikolai, people are finally starting to pay attention. Here's hoping he can ride these mentions to an AMPAS mention - he certainly deserves it more than, say, Washington or Depp (or even Day-Lewis for that matter, IMHO.)

Again, the last spot is interesting: Washington got Globes love, but no SAG mention, while Gosling got both. The two actors' films seem to be well-liked enough, but not wholly embraced by the rest of the industry. The beloved Into the Wild, on the other hand, is a sure bet to garner many nominations, and Emile Hirsch may very well be brought along for the ride. He pretty much carries the entire film by himself, and undergoes many physical transformations throughout his two-year journey. A bit young for this category, but he's been around for a while and has built up quite a sizable and respectable resume. But if these last three ultimately cancel one another out, it's entirely possible that Frank Langella or Mathieu Amalric could land a surprise nomination. This category is due for a shake-up.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE (5/5)
1. Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
2. Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
3. Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
4. Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
5. Ruby Dee, American Gangster
---
6. Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
7. Kelly MacDonald, No Country for Old Men
8. Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement

First two are no-brainers: Blanchett makes it in on the concept and buzz alone, while Amy Ryan has a billion critics' prizes under her belt (including the most powerful ones: NBR, LAFCA and NYFCC.) It's between these two for the win, but that's for another time. Tilda Swinton has FINALLY landed a film that isn't too weird or off-putting for awards attention (by Hollywood standards that is, mind you.) I'm so thrilled for my Tilda! It's only about fifteen years late, but nevermind... Meanwhile, I'm betting that Saoirse Ronan will be the only one of Atonement's much-hyped actors to actually make it through. The young actor commands the film's first stronger half and we all know that this category is very kind to young girls. She's considered the next big thing, and she already has several prestige projects in the pipeline (including The Lovely Bones, directed by Peter Jackson.)

Meanwhile, Ruby Dee's and Catherine Keener's campaigns were bolstered by SAG, but I'm betting that Dee makes it through with a career longevity nod. She has a minuscule role in the Ridley Scott picture, and the screenplay largely ignores her until that biggie confrontation scene with Denzel - and what a mark it leaves! For me, she was the only thing worth mentioning or even remembering in the dull, derivative American Gangster. That lone scene is the one that resounds most clearly in my mind after seeing it, and I'm betting voters feel the same way. I'm not really convinced that Keener will crack the top five, even if she is well-liked and esteemed by her peers. I saw Into the Wild after the SAG nominations were announced and I was shocked that such a fleeting appearance was able to score a mention. She does wonders with the role (similar to what she accomplished in Capote), but she doesn't have a real "stand-out" scene that's quite memorable like Dee. Even in the Bennett Miller film, in which her Harper Lee was very quiet and reserved, she still had that key telephone conversation with Truman that was thematically loaded. Not so here.

Kelly MacDonald is quite lovely in No Country for Old Men, and I'm betting that voters will be even more inclined to throw a vote her way if they are aware that she is Scottish. She has some excellent moments in the picture, and that final scene with Bardem is definitely lingering on the brain. I wouldn't be surprised if I heard her name called on Tuesday, but I'd definitely be jumping off the walls. Go Kelly! Meanwhile, Vanessa Redgrave seems to me the only other contender in this particular race: if voters are feeling nostalgic (her last nod was for Howards End), it's entirely possible. We know that two actresses from the same film are often nominated in this category (Almost Famous, Gosford Park, Chicago, and just last year's Babel.)

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE (4/5)
1. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
2. Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
3. Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
4. Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
5. Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men-
---
6. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War+
7. Josh Brolin, No Country for Old Men
8. Max Von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

I am going with SAG here too, even though this is where voters can give Philip Seymour Hoffman a shout-out for his triple-threat year. But with Tommy Lee Jones taking his place in the aforementioned lineup - in addition to the poor showing of Charlie Wilson's War across the guilds - he may have to sit this year out. Hoffman may have had a great year, but don't forget that Lee Jones also had In the Valley of Elah early in the season, which was considered a lock by many (including myself) when it first opened. I am sure that performance will also factor into the votes cast for this category, but it is definitely between the two of them for that last spot. I doubt we will see any major surprises here (Brolin will have his votes split between lead and supporting, while Von Sydow probably peaked too late.)

Affleck looks very safe to me; practically every actor who has won NBR in this category goes on to be nominated here and he also has support from GG/SAG/BFCA. Tom Wilkinson is in the same position as his co-stars Clooney and Swinton: not much of a threat for an actual win, but still guaranteed a position in the final five. Holbrook and Bardem are obviously locks at this point, no use in explaining why.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (4/5)
1. Diablo Cody, Juno
2. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
3. Brad Bird, Ratatouille
4. Judd Apatow, Knocked Up-
5. Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
---
6. Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl+
7. Steven Zaillian, American Gangster
8. Kelly Masterson, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

Commentary coming soon.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (3/5)
1. Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
2. Sean Penn, Into the Wild-
3. Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
5. Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson's War-
---
6. James Vanderbilt, Zodiac
7. Sarah Polley, Away from Her+
8. Christopher Hampton, Atonement+

Commentary coming soon.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM (2/5)
1. Ratatouille
2. The Simpsons Movie-
3. Persepolis
---
4. Beowulf
5. Bee Movie

Missed: Surf's Up

BEST ART DIRECTION (3/5)
1. Dante Ferretti, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
2. Sarah Greenwood, Atonement
3. Jack Fisk, There Will Be Blood
4. Stuart Craig, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix-
5. Rick Heinrichs, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End-
---
6. Guy Dyas, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
7. Patricia Norris, The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
8. Jess Gonchor, No Country for Old Men

Missed: Arthur Max, Beth A. Rubino, American Gangster and Dennis Gasner, Anna Pinnock, The Golden Compass

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (4/5)
1. Roger Deakins, The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
2. Janusz Kaminski, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
3. Roger Deakins, No Country for Old Men
4. Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood
5. Dariusz Wolski, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street-
---
6. Seamus McGarvey, Atonement+
7. Harris Savides, Zodiac
8. Rodrigo Prieto, Lust, Caution

BEST COSTUME DESIGN (3/5)
1. Jacqueline Durran, Atonement
2. Colleen Atwood, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
3. Alexandra Byrne, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
4. Patricia Norris, The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford-
5. Penny Rose, Liz Dann, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End-
--
6. Arianne Phillips, 3:10 to Yuma
7. Ruth Meyers, The Golden Compass
8. Rita Ryack, Hairspray

(They might as well just hand Durran the Oscar right now, what with all the green dress talk.)

Missed: Albert Wolsky, Across the Universe and Marit Allen, La Vie En Rose

BEST EDITING (3/5)
1. Roderick P. Janes, No Country for Old Men
2. John Gilroy, Michael Clayton-
3. Christopher Rouse, The Bourne Ultimatum
4. Jay Cassidy, Into the Wild
5. Pietro Scalia, American Gangster-
---
6. Chris Lebenzon, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
7. Juliette Welfling, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly+
8. Dylan Techinor, There Will Be Blood+

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE-FILM (4/5)
Not having seen any of or heard much about the final seven picks by the voting committee, I am fully expecting to crash and burn here.

12 (Russia)
The Counterfeiters (Austria)
Katyn (Poland)
Mongol (Kazakhstan)
The Year My Parents Went on Vacation (Brazil)-

Missed: Beaufort (Israel)

BEST MAKE-UP (1/5)
1. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street-
2. La Vie En Rose
3. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly-
---
4. Norbit+
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End+
6. 300
7. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE) (3/5)
1. Dario Marianelli, Atonement
2. Alexandre Desplat, Lust, Caution-
3. Alberto Iglesias, The Kite Runner
4. Howard Shore, Eastern Promises-
5. Michael Giaccino, Ratatouille
---
6. Marco Beltrami, 3:10 to Yuma+
7. Alan Silvestri, Beowulf
8. Clint Eastwood, Grace is Gone

(EDIT: Replaced Johnny Greenwood with Howard Shore, as the former's score for There Will Be Blood has been disqualified at the nth hour.)

Missed: James Newton Howard, Michael Clayton

BEST MUSIC (SONG) (2/5)
1. "Come So Far (Got So Far to Go)", Hairspray-
2. "That's How You Know", Enchanted
3. "Guaranteed", Into the Wild-
4. "Despedida", Love in the Time of Cholera-
5. "Falling Slowly", Once
---
6. "Grace is Gone", Grace is Gone
7. "Walk Hard", Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story
8. "Happy Working Song", Enchanted+

Missed: "So Close", Enchanted and "Raise it Up", August Rush

BEST SOUND-MIXING (4/5)
1. Transformers
2. Ratatouille
3. The Bourne Ultimatum
4. No Country for Old Men
5. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street-
---
6. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
7. 300
8. American Gangster

Missed: Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe, 3:10 to Yuma

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING (3/5)
1. Transformers
2. Ratatouille
3. 300-
4. The Bourne Ultimatum
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End-
---
6. Beowulf
7. The Golden Compass
8. Spider-Man 3

Missed: Matthew Wood, There Will Be Blood and Skip Lievsy, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland, No Country for Old Men

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (1/5)
1. Transformers
2. Evan Almighty-
3. 300-
---
4. The Golden Compass+
5. Pirates of the Caribean: At World's End+
6. I Am Legend
7. The Bourne Ultimatum

=
OVERALL PREDICTED TALLY
No Country for Old Men - 8
Into the Wild - 7
Michael Clayton - 6
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - 6
There Will Be Blood - 6
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - 5
Ratatouille - 5
Atonement - 4
The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford - 3
The Bourne Ultimatum - 3
Eastern Promises - 3
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End - 3
Transformers - 3
300 - 2
American Gangster - 2
Elizabeth: The Golden Age - 2
Juno - 2
La Vie En Rose - 2
Away from Her - 1
Charlie Wilson's War - 1
Enchanted - 1
Evan Almighty - 1
Gone Baby Gone - 1
I'm Not There - 1
The Kite Runner - 1
Hairspray - 1
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - 1
Knocked Up - 1
Love in the Time of Cholera - 1
A Mighty Heart - 1
Once - 1
Persepolis - 1
The Savages - 1

NBR Predix

Best Film (2007): No Country for Old Men

Initially, I had an instinct to go for Sweeney Todd, but then I remembered that the NBR has never really embraced a Tim Burton film in full-force, even ignoring his critical hits like Ed Wood and Big Fish. Yes, Corpse Bride won the Animated Film prize back in '05, but I don't think it makes much of a difference in this race. The Coen Brothers film is fitting in that it makes for a respectable, critically approved choice (in the same vein as Goodnight and Good Luck.) Unless they decide to go really bizarro, like with Quills in '00, but they haven't done something that crazy in a long time.

The Top Ten (in alphabetical order):
American Gangster, Atonement, Charlie Wilson's War, Hairspray, Into the Wild, Juno, The Kite Runner, Knocked Up, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men.

Best Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah and No Country for Old Men [alt. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood]
- Depp is also a possibility here; they usually go for the obvious choices in the lead categories, saving the truly "out there" citations for the supporting races.

Best Actress: Laura Linney, The Savages [alt. Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart]
- The NBR doesn't really reward foreign films in the main races, relegating kudos to specialized categories, so I'm ruling Cotillard out entirely.

Best Supporting Actor: Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild [alt. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men]

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There [alt. Jennifer Garner, Juno]

Best Direction: Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead [alt. Sean Penn, Into the Wild]

Best Writing - Original: Diablo Cody, Juno [alt. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton]

Best Writing - Adapted: Christopher Hampton, Atonement [alt. Eileen Chang, James Schamus, Lust, Caution]
- Re: the alternate... yes, they don't like foreign fare in these categories, but it *is* an Ang Lee film, and he's been twice rewarded in the directing category.

Breakthrough (Male): I... don't care.

Breakthrough (Female): Ugh. In a better world, Tei Wang for Lust, Caution.

Ensemble: I'm Not There or Hairspray

Foreign Language Film: 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days

Animated Film: Persepolis

Documentary: Sicko (they like Moore)

Debut Director: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton